ONITSHA, Nigeria, Mar. 3, 2006

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(AP) A body smolders in the road after Muslim-Christian clashes. Armed men ply the waterways of the Niger Delta, kidnapping oil workers and attacking pipelines.

Violence often erupts in Nigeria, but the latest unrest comes at a particularly difficult political time: elections are scheduled for 2007, and the transition from military despotism to multiparty democracy is at stake.

Olusegun Obasanjo _ first elected president in 1999 _ has not ruled out asking lawmakers to change the constitution and allow him to seek a third term.

From the Senate to the writers of splashy newspaper headlines, Nigerians are hotly debating if Obasanjo should stay on. Speculation about his desire for a third term "is raising political tensions and, if proven true, threatens to unleash major turmoil and conflict," U.S. National Intelligence Director John Negroponte said Tuesday.

Chaos in Nigeria could interrupt oil supplies, encourage secessionist moves, spur major refugee flows and create instability elsewhere in West Africa.

With 130 million people split among 250 ethnic groups, Nigeria is Africa's most-populous nation and among its most fractious. But as the continent's biggest oil producer, the country also has great promise.

That promise is threatened by violence, which can be triggered by faraway events.

As Nigerians joined worldwide protests over publication of cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, a riot broke out in the heavily Muslim north that saw Muslims killing Christians.

By the time reprisal attacks ended in Onitsha, in the mostly Christian southeast, more than 100 people had been killed nationwide. Muslim bodies smoked beneath scorched tires in Onitsha. It was the deadliest religious fighting anywhere in the world since the cartoons' publication.

One analyst, Charles Doukubo, views the initial riots as a message by mosque leaders in the north to Obasanjo, a southern Christian, that they also wield power and he must heed the many northerners opposed to any third term.

"If he (Obasanjo) wants to stay, it won't be easy," said Doukubo, a research fellow at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs in Lagos.

On Friday, authorities said they had uncovered a plot to cause a new wave of violence. Information Minister Frank Nweke did not identify the plotters, but said they had hoped to scuttle this month's census _ the first in Nigeria in 15 years _ as part of a campaign to discredit Obasanjo's government.

Obasanjo, 66, has said he misses his home in Abeokuta and has avoided further comment on any retirement plans. He says he is focused on leading Nigeria, determined to uphold the constitution and devoted to helping his country.

"Everything I do now is to protect Nigeria's interest, and if that will cost me my life, so be it," Obasanjo said this week.

His main opponent in the 2003 elections, which saw Obasanjo win his second four-year mandate since the end of military rule in 1999, frames the religious riots as an anti-Obasanjo protest.

The cartoons were "not the cause of the disturbances; it was the government's mad rush for third term," local media quoted Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari as saying. Buhari, like Obasanjo, once led a military government and has said he will run for president in 2007.

Poverty _ and the struggle for the oil riches power delivers _ is at the root of fighting in the Niger Delta, two hours drive from Onitsha.

Recent attacks and kidnappings by militants in the Delta have cut nearly 20 percent of Nigeria's usual 2.5 million daily barrel crude production, sending international oil prices sharply higher.

The federal government controls revenues from the oil pumped by international energy companies, and the people of the south want a greater share. They also hope for a president from their region and ethnic group.

Obasanjo is a Yoruba from the southwest, not an Igbo or Ijaw or Ogoni from the Delta, also in the south but to the east.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta militants patrol the creeks where the Niger River enters the Atlantic Ocean. Their numbers aren't known, but with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, they appear better armed and more sophisticated than past militant groups.

They want the federal government _ in the person of Obasanjo _ to back out of their affairs.

Obasanjo has waged a public fight against graft, but the militants say his security forces steal oil for sale on the black market. The government says the militants are just bandits.

"The Nigerian federal government has always oppressed us and stolen our oil," one masked militant carrying an AK-47 shouted to reporters in a mid-creek meeting. "Now we're taking the bull by the horns."

Some Nigerians worry the armed revolt could spread in the current political climate, even leading to a civil war that would send untold numbers of refugees across West Africa, undermining burgeoning regional stability.

But Doukubo, the analyst, called that fevered speculation. Nigeria has a history of political tumult but has remained unified despite one civil war since 1960 independence and 33 years of military dictatorships.

"Nigeria is a country where the worst never happens and the best is yet to come," Doukubo said.